|
| 1 | +--- |
| 2 | +layout: post |
| 3 | +title: How to Not Destroy Trillions |
| 4 | +subtitle: On non-zero sum games |
| 5 | +--- |
| 6 | + |
| 7 | +1 + 1 can be 3. We know this intuitively because we live by this when we seek friendship, love, and collaboration. Being in a loving relationship (all the haters can roll their eyes) is magic - life is better together! Or another example, my business partner and I bring different skills to the business. Our 1's together make something greater than 2. |
| 8 | + |
| 9 | +When we work together towards shared goals we can do more than when we go it alone. Working together, collaborating, is how we got to now. Game theorist call these examples, non-zero sum: |
| 10 | + |
| 11 | +{% include quoteback.html title="Nonzero: The Logic of Human Destiny" author="Robert Wright" sourceURL="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonzero:_The_Logic_of_Human_Destiny" |
| 12 | +quote="... over the long run, non-zero-sum situations produce more positive sums than negative sums, more mutual benefit than parasitism. As a result, people become embedded in larger and richer webs of interdependence. |
| 13 | +<br><br> |
| 14 | +This basic sequence - the conversion of non-zero-sum situations into mostly positive sums - had started happening at least as early as 15,000 years ago. Then it happened again. And again. And again. Until - voila - here we are, riding in airplanes, sending emails, living in a global village." %} |
| 15 | + |
| 16 | +To that list of amazing achievements I would add living in a peaceful democracy. |
| 17 | + |
| 18 | +One of the _claimed_ goals[^3] of the Trump administration's tariffs is to: [bring jobs back to America](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/03/trump-tariffs-goals-deficit-jobs.html). There are a lot of ways to achieve that goal. Let's imagine an alternative solution that doesn't [destroy trillions of dollars](https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2025/04/04/tariffs-cause-another-stock-market-rout-losses-approach-5-trillion-as-dow-plummets-another-2200-points/). |
| 19 | + |
| 20 | +# They Not Like Us |
| 21 | + |
| 22 | +``` |
| 23 | +-1 + 1 != 3 |
| 24 | +``` |
| 25 | + |
| 26 | +We only get the benefits of a non-zero sum game, the surplus of collaborating, if we're working towards shared goals. Billionaires don't live like us and have plans to live without us. Fine. We can tax them and if they choose to leave the US that's fine. They already behave as if they're different. |
| 27 | + |
| 28 | +Musk and I don't have the same shared goals. We're not moving towards the same end state (I hope). He doesn't need me and I don't need him. He can keep his Cybertrucks[^2]. I still like SpaceX, but [Gwynne Shotwell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gwynne_Shotwell) is the one who really runs it anyway. |
| 29 | + |
| 30 | +If the trickle down benefits I get from them are: |
| 31 | +- Shitty trucks from Musk |
| 32 | +- Biased news from Bezos |
| 33 | +- Community destroying social media monopoly from Zuckerberg |
| 34 | + |
| 35 | +I don't want it. We can tax their wealth above a billion dollars and fund much of what tariffs are claimed to achieve. They would cry their ][billionaire tears](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/elizabeth-warrens-mug-of-billionaire-tears-costs-25-and-is-one-of-the-hottest-selling-items-on-her-campaign-website-2019-11-15). The Walton offspring would buy a little less of America's rare art. Bezos would likely sell shares of Amazon which would likely be better for the company. Musk would have a little less pocket change to try to buy elections. |
| 36 | + |
| 37 | +The stupidity of much of this chaos from Trump is a view of the world where they want to take what they can. Break the game and steal what they can. But the insanity of it is that the wheels fall off really quickly when 1 + 1 no longer adds up. When people (trading partners, allies, regular citizens, etc) stop playing the non-zero sum game that got us to here - the floor falls out. The wonder of what we've all built together (and it's not all wonderful obviously, but take the basics around economic growth and average life expectancy) is based around interdependency. Collaboration is how we've built the complex world we depend on. |
| 38 | + |
| 39 | +Trump, and his moronic advisers, view the world as a zero sum game. They think they can stop the music and grab as much as possible, then strut around like heroes. |
| 40 | + |
| 41 | +Sure, you can "win" by lying, cheating, and stealing. In the __short term__. But over the long term, people will stop playing because they know you'll cheat them. |
| 42 | + |
| 43 | +[Richard Powers](https://www.richardpowers.net/) perfectly made this point last fall in Portland at the Portland Book Festival: |
| 44 | + |
| 45 | +{% include quoteback.html title="Richard Powers at Literary Arts 2024" author="Richard Powers" sourceURL="https://literary-arts.org/archive/richard-powers-2/" |
| 46 | +quote="... there's another book that was instrumental to me in thinking about these things. James P. Carse book, <i>Finite and Infinite Games</i> and Carse says, <b>'A finite game is played to be won. But an infinite game is played to continue the play.'</b> And once I had that formulation, you know, I was able to think about how we are here on this earth and how the culture that we've inherited has been trying to play a finite game against the planet. |
| 47 | +<br><br> |
| 48 | +You know, that, that we've been trying to win our way of life. Against the planet and what's going to be required for us to stick around here much longer is a shift in consciousness from playing that finite game to trying to rejoin the infinite game, trying to figure out what we would need to do, how we would need to think, how we would need to live in order to rejoin that infinite game and to play for purposes of continuing the game." %} |
| 49 | + |
| 50 | +Powers' entire interview is worth listening to and savoring. His vision extends far beyond politics and encompasses our ongoing relationship with the planet. |
| 51 | + |
| 52 | +Beyond the lifespan of aging leaders, and even my life or my kids life spans, we've got to collaborate and work towards shared goals: peace, justice, and shared prosperity. We get there when 1 + 1 = 3. |
| 53 | + |
| 54 | + |
| 55 | +[^1]: Really the non-zero sumness as Robin Wright calls it is just greater than 2. It's a surplus. |
| 56 | +[^2]: Although Tesla has so many of them unsold [they won't take them back as a trade-in](https://www.autoevolution.com/news/the-cybertruck-sales-are-so-bad-that-not-even-tesla-is-accepting-one-for-trade-ins-249656.html#). |
| 57 | +[^3]: I'm not a sucker, but let's explore the stated goal. |
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